{
 "about": "Knowledge catalog of https://www.sidorecs.com - everything published here as structured data, generated from the same source as the pages. Full text of any page: append .md to its URL, or https://www.sidorecs.com/llms-full.txt.",
 "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/catalog.json",
 "dateModified": "2026-10-18",
 "person": {
  "@type": "Person",
  "name": "Aleks Sidorecs",
  "alternateName": [
   "Aleksandrs Sidorecs",
   "Alex Sidorecs",
   "Alecs Sidorec"
  ],
  "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/about/",
  "image": "https://www.sidorecs.com/static/img/aleks-headshot.b559076d31.jpg",
  "jobTitle": "Global Head of Supply Chain",
  "description": "Re-thinking operating models for the moment operations meet the algorithm. Two decades running global supply chains, now applied to how physical operations, business architecture and AI get designed together.",
  "worksFor": {
   "@type": "Organization",
   "name": "ED&F Man Commodities",
   "department": {
    "@type": "Organization",
    "name": "Volcafe"
   }
  },
  "affiliation": {
   "@id": "https://www.automatiqa.io/#organization"
  },
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   "https://github.com/alxsidr",
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  ],
  "hasCredential": {
   "@type": "EducationalOccupationalCredential",
   "name": "FCIPS - Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply",
   "credentialCategory": "Professional Fellowship",
   "recognizedBy": {
    "@type": "Organization",
    "name": "Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply",
    "url": "https://www.cips.org/"
   }
  },
  "memberOf": [
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    "name": "Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, Switzerland Branch",
    "url": "https://www.cips.org/events-networking/branches/switzerland"
   },
   {
    "@id": "https://www.re-model.ch/#org"
   }
  ],
  "knowsAbout": [
   "supply chain operations",
   "supply chain strategy",
   "operating model design",
   "agentic AI",
   "multi-agent orchestration",
   "intelligent orchestration",
   "digital transformation",
   "process automation",
   "coffee and soft commodities supply chains",
   "logistics and freight",
   "procurement",
   "AI in negotiation and procurement"
  ],
  "performerIn": [
   {
    "@id": "https://www.sidorecs.com/#event-2026-10-02"
   },
   {
    "@id": "https://www.sidorecs.com/#event-2026-09-28"
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  ]
 },
 "license": {
  "Heuristics": {
   "license": "CC BY 4.0",
   "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
   "mirror": "https://github.com/alxsidr/heuristics"
  },
  "everything else": "copyright Aleks Sidorecs. All rights reserved. Short quotations with attribution and a link are welcome; republication and derivative versions are not."
 },
 "series": [
  {
   "title": "Heuristics",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/",
   "feed": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/rss.xml",
   "description": "Heuristics are one-page rules for operations and supply chain, from a practitioner who keeps learning and applying them.",
   "entries": [
    {
     "number": "01",
     "title": "Requisite variety in supply chain",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/",
     "markdown": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain.md",
     "summary": "Any operation can absorb only as much variation as it has responses for. The Variety Shortfall Test finds where it loses.",
     "maxim": "Match the variety or pay for the difference.",
     "published": "2026-09-08",
     "updated": "2026-09-21",
     "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260926092147/https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/",
     "parts": [
      {
       "part": "problem",
       "heading": "What is requisite variety in supply chain?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#what-is-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain"
      },
      {
       "part": "why it's hard",
       "heading": "Somebody has been paying for it all along",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#somebody-has-been-paying-for-it-all-along"
      },
      {
       "part": "rule",
       "heading": "Three activities, pick one",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#three-activities-pick-one"
      },
      {
       "part": "test",
       "heading": "Which layer is short?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#which-layer-is-short"
      },
      {
       "part": "mistakes",
       "heading": "How this rule gets misapplied",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#how-this-rule-gets-misapplied"
      },
      {
       "part": "links",
       "heading": "Related heuristics",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#related-heuristics"
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "question": "What is requisite variety in supply chain?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#what-is-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain"
      },
      {
       "question": "Who pays when an operation has too few responses?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#somebody-has-been-paying-for-it-all-along"
      },
      {
       "question": "Should you reduce, absorb or accept variation?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#three-activities-pick-one"
      },
      {
       "question": "How do you find which response layer is short?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#which-layer-is-short"
      },
      {
       "question": "How does this rule get misapplied?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/#how-this-rule-gets-misapplied"
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "number": "02",
     "title": "Asymmetric supply chain physics",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/",
     "markdown": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics.md",
     "summary": "Symmetric vs asymmetric supply chains, and the Outside Variance Ratio that tells you which one you're in.",
     "maxim": "Diagnose the shape before you prescribe the cure.",
     "published": "2026-09-16",
     "updated": "2026-09-21",
     "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260926091332/https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/",
     "parts": [
      {
       "part": "problem",
       "heading": "When do classical supply chain strategies stop working?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#when-do-classical-supply-chain-strategies-stop-working"
      },
      {
       "part": "why it's hard",
       "heading": "Same tools and operating modes, but wrong physics",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#same-tools-and-operating-modes-but-wrong-physics"
      },
      {
       "part": "rule",
       "heading": "One question facing three architectures",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#one-question-facing-three-architectures"
      },
      {
       "part": "test",
       "heading": "Which shape are you in?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#which-shape-are-you-in"
      },
      {
       "part": "mistakes",
       "heading": "How this rule gets misapplied",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#how-this-rule-gets-misapplied"
      },
      {
       "part": "links",
       "heading": "Related heuristics",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#related-heuristics"
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "question": "When do classical supply chain strategies stop working?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#when-do-classical-supply-chain-strategies-stop-working"
      },
      {
       "question": "Why do the same tools fail here?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#same-tools-and-operating-modes-but-wrong-physics"
      },
      {
       "question": "What should you decide before choosing any tool?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#one-question-facing-three-architectures"
      },
      {
       "question": "Which shape are you in?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#which-shape-are-you-in"
      },
      {
       "question": "How does this rule get misapplied?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/#how-this-rule-gets-misapplied"
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "number": "03",
     "title": "Decision loop readiness",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/",
     "markdown": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness.md",
     "summary": "Supply chain and operations AI readiness tends to score the wrong item. The decision loop determines whether it’s AI-ready.",
     "maxim": "A company is never ready. A loop is, or it isn’t.",
     "published": "2026-10-17",
     "updated": "2026-10-18",
     "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261017101115/https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/",
     "parts": [
      {
       "part": "problem",
       "heading": "Why do AI readiness scores never tell you what supply chain operation should do on Monday?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/#why-do-ai-readiness-scores-never-tell-you-what-supply-chain-operation-should-do-on-monday"
      },
      {
       "part": "why it's hard",
       "heading": "A company doesn’t decide. A decision loop does.",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/#a-company-doesn-t-decide-a-decision-loop-does"
      },
      {
       "part": "rule",
       "heading": "One loop, traced end to end, before any paid assessment",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/#one-loop-traced-end-to-end-before-any-paid-assessment"
      },
      {
       "part": "test",
       "heading": "Is this loop ready?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/#is-this-loop-ready"
      },
      {
       "part": "mistakes",
       "heading": "How this rule gets misapplied",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/#how-this-rule-gets-misapplied"
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "question": "Why don't AI readiness scores tell operations what to do?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/#why-do-ai-readiness-scores-never-tell-you-what-supply-chain-operation-should-do-on-monday"
      },
      {
       "question": "What is a decision loop?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/#a-company-doesn-t-decide-a-decision-loop-does"
      },
      {
       "question": "How do you assess one decision loop for AI?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/#one-loop-traced-end-to-end-before-any-paid-assessment"
      },
      {
       "question": "Is this loop ready for agentic AI?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/#is-this-loop-ready"
      },
      {
       "question": "How does this rule get misapplied?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/#how-this-rule-gets-misapplied"
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "notebooks": [
  {
   "title": "Zero-shot prediction models in supply chain",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/",
   "description": "Any supply chain operator logs in, defines the columns to predict, and gets results with certain confidence intervals.",
   "project": "Auspex",
   "project_url": "https://www.automatiqa.io/auspex/",
   "repo": "https://github.com/automatiqa-lab/auspex",
   "chapters": [
    {
     "number": "01",
     "title": "Problem statement: what I'm solving",
     "kind": "build notes",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement/",
     "markdown": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement.md",
     "summary": "Alternative methods also existed, but getting from a table to a proper forecast or prediction was always a painful project.",
     "published": "2026-10-06",
     "updated": "2026-10-06",
     "sections": [
      {
       "heading": "My experience with probabilistic chaos and LLMs",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement/#my-experience-with-probabilistic-chaos-and-llms"
      },
      {
       "heading": "What changed: how it helps and what accelerates the approach",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement/#what-changed-how-it-helps-and-what-accelerates-the-approach"
      },
      {
       "heading": "My expectations from the project",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement/#my-expectations-from-the-project"
      },
      {
       "heading": "How I will judge the completion",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement/#how-i-will-judge-the-completion"
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "question": "Why can't an LLM forecast supply chain delays?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement/#my-experience-with-probabilistic-chaos-and-llms"
      },
      {
       "question": "What do zero-shot prediction models change?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement/#what-changed-how-it-helps-and-what-accelerates-the-approach"
      },
      {
       "question": "What should zero-shot prediction give an operator?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement/#my-expectations-from-the-project"
      },
      {
       "question": "How will Auspex be judged?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement/#how-i-will-judge-the-completion"
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "title": "Supply chain planning and execution in commodities",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/",
   "description": "I chose the name SCOPEC because it describes what I want to build: a test tool covering supply chain operations planning and execution in commodities.",
   "project": "SCOPEC",
   "project_url": "https://www.automatiqa.io/scopec/",
   "repo": "https://github.com/automatiqa-lab/scopec",
   "chapters": [
    {
     "number": "01",
     "title": "Problem statement: why commodities require different planning and execution solutions",
     "kind": "build notes",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/",
     "markdown": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement.md",
     "summary": "After some years in this industry, I've discovered the gap is never in the data.",
     "published": "2026-10-18",
     "updated": "2026-10-18",
     "sections": [
      {
       "heading": "Why the usual supply chain solutions are not so relevant for commodities",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/#why-the-usual-supply-chain-solutions-are-not-so-relevant-for-commodities"
      },
      {
       "heading": "What is changing. Rules come first, and reliance on probabilities where the world is uncertain",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/#what-is-changing-rules-come-first-and-reliance-on-probabilities-where-the-world-is-uncertain"
      },
      {
       "heading": "My expectations from the project",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/#my-expectations-from-the-project"
      },
      {
       "heading": "How I will judge the completion",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/#how-i-will-judge-the-completion"
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "question": "Why don't standard S&OP and S&OE tools fit commodities?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/#why-the-usual-supply-chain-solutions-are-not-so-relevant-for-commodities"
      },
      {
       "question": "Where do rules and AI belong in commodity planning?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/#what-is-changing-rules-come-first-and-reliance-on-probabilities-where-the-world-is-uncertain"
      },
      {
       "question": "What should a commodity planning tool let a planner do?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/#my-expectations-from-the-project"
      },
      {
       "question": "How will SCOPEC be judged?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/#how-i-will-judge-the-completion"
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "title": "Citizen Developers in Supply Chain",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/",
   "description": "Who are Citizen Developers in Supply Chain and What do they solve?",
   "project": null,
   "project_url": null,
   "repo": null,
   "chapters": [
    {
     "number": "01",
     "title": "The system of record isn't where the work happens",
     "kind": "essay",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/",
     "markdown": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record.md",
     "summary": "Every supply chain runs on two distinct technology landscapes. The official one records what happened: every transaction, supply chain event, and data point.",
     "published": "2026-08-10",
     "updated": "2026-10-09",
     "sections": [
      {
       "heading": "1.1 The two landscapes facing the same reality",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-1-the-two-landscapes-facing-the-same-reality"
      },
      {
       "heading": "1.2 Size of the second landscape",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-2-size-of-the-second-landscape"
      },
      {
       "heading": "1.3 Why IT cannot close the gap",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-3-why-it-cannot-close-the-gap"
      },
      {
       "heading": "1.4 The law the spreadsheet obeys",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-4-the-law-the-spreadsheet-obeys"
      },
      {
       "heading": "1.5 What and where it is changing",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-5-what-and-where-it-is-changing"
      },
      {
       "heading": "1.6 Potential way forward",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-6-potential-way-forward"
      },
      {
       "heading": "1.8 Key takeaways",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-8-key-takeaways"
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "question": "What are the two technology landscapes in supply chain?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-1-the-two-landscapes-facing-the-same-reality"
      },
      {
       "question": "How big is the second landscape?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-2-size-of-the-second-landscape"
      },
      {
       "question": "Why can't IT close the gap?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-3-why-it-cannot-close-the-gap"
      },
      {
       "question": "Why does the spreadsheet keep outperforming systems?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-4-the-law-the-spreadsheet-obeys"
      },
      {
       "question": "What changed for citizen developers?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-5-what-and-where-it-is-changing"
      },
      {
       "question": "How should companies support citizen developers?",
       "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/#1-6-potential-way-forward"
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "articles": [
  {
   "title": "What does supply chain orchestration actually orchestrate?",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/",
   "markdown": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration.md",
   "summary": "Orchestrate inside the walls, but calibrate beyond them.",
   "published": "2026-10-04",
   "updated": "2026-10-04",
   "sections": [
    {
     "heading": "Orchestrate or not to orchestrate, that's a question",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#orchestrate-or-not-to-orchestrate-that-s-a-question"
    },
    {
     "heading": "When it stops inside the company walls",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#when-it-stops-inside-the-company-walls"
    },
    {
     "heading": "The seam that sets the speed.",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#the-seam-that-sets-the-speed"
    },
    {
     "heading": "Where it stops at the wall",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#where-it-stops-at-the-wall"
    },
    {
     "heading": "Three rungs, two seams.",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#three-rungs-two-seams"
    },
    {
     "heading": "Where I think this goes",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#where-i-think-this-goes"
    }
   ],
   "answers": [
    {
     "question": "Which flows does physical trade run on?",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#orchestrate-or-not-to-orchestrate-that-s-a-question"
    },
    {
     "question": "What happens when one function gets faster than the rest?",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#when-it-stops-inside-the-company-walls"
    },
    {
     "question": "Which handover sets the speed?",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#the-seam-that-sets-the-speed"
    },
    {
     "question": "Why does orchestration stop at the company wall?",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#where-it-stops-at-the-wall"
    },
    {
     "question": "What are the three rungs of orchestration?",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#three-rungs-two-seams"
    },
    {
     "question": "Where does agentic orchestration go next?",
     "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/#where-i-think-this-goes"
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "elsewhere": [
  {
   "title": "Why process maps don't tell you what to delegate to an AI agent",
   "url": "https://www.automatiqa.io/intelligent-orchestration/why-process-maps-dont-tell-you-what-to-delegate-to-an-ai-agent/",
   "venue": "Automatiqa Lab",
   "kind": "article",
   "date": "2026-09-19"
  },
  {
   "title": "The Intelligent Orchestration Manifesto",
   "url": "https://www.automatiqa.io/manifesto/",
   "venue": "Automatiqa Lab",
   "kind": "article",
   "date": "2026-09-17"
  },
  {
   "title": "The Invisible Chain - an event about AI in supply chain, but the biggest lever is different",
   "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/invisible-chain-event-ai-supply-biggest-lever-aleks-sidorecs-fuvie/",
   "venue": "LinkedIn",
   "kind": "article",
   "date": "2026-06-22"
  }
 ],
 "glossary": [
  {
   "term": "Asymmetric supply chain",
   "definition": "An asymmetric supply chain has a funnel shape - a fragmented base of artisanal producers and small enterprises, market access and value controlled in the mid-section, capital and data at the neck. There is nothing to adjust around a shock, so it travels up the funnel to the market and back down to the base, which absorbs it. In the research literature the same phrase usually means relational, informational or dependence asymmetry between trading parties; the sense used here is structural - the shape of the network and where the variance enters it.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#asymmetric-supply-chain"
  },
  {
   "term": "Contractual flow",
   "definition": "Contractual flow - commercial commitments, title transfers, quality terms, arbitration rules. In my world, the contract isn't just the source of information about a trade or commercial deal - it's the trade itself.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#contractual-flow"
  },
  {
   "term": "Decision loop",
   "definition": "A decision loop is a network of handovers that ends in a specific decision, combined with a feedback loop that sends the outcome back to the person who will decide next time. Readiness for agentic AI is a property of the loop, not of the company - see b = f + s + p, the count of function, system and P&L boundaries the loop crosses between trigger and return.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/03-decision-loop-readiness/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#decision-loop"
  },
  {
   "term": "Deterministic kernel",
   "definition": "Deterministic kernel - The same thinking explains why, in this project, netting, allocations, and compliance protocols will be deterministic by design: same inputs -> same repeatable result. An LLM might explain the plan or create a draft email to chase shipping documents from the vendor, but every number in that text should come from the deterministic kernel.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#deterministic-kernel"
  },
  {
   "term": "Ecosystem calibration",
   "definition": "Ecosystem calibration - all four flows (in my case it's from farm to cup), partners, irrespective of their maturity level and sophistication, get calibrated to shared signals and standards, with no conductor in between.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#ecosystem-calibration"
  },
  {
   "term": "Four-flow orchestration",
   "definition": "Four-flow orchestration - all four flows that represent every function and legal entity across a single enterprise or group of affiliated companies. Handovers are automated in an integrated way, so that every function, system, process, and P&L form a unified fabric of business execution.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#four-flow-orchestration"
  },
  {
   "term": "Heuristics",
   "definition": "Heuristics is the author's series of one-page rules for operations and supply chain, each carrying a problem, a rule, a test, a real case, the mistakes and a maxim.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#heuristics"
  },
  {
   "term": "Hybrid supply chain",
   "definition": "A hybrid supply chain is brand-centred and layered - asymmetric upstream, symmetric downstream. Brand owner and contract manufacturers absorb different halves of a shock by contractual arrangement, and the model restores itself only while neither half exceeds what it was designed to carry. Distinct from the common usage, where a hybrid operating model means centralised functions combined with decentralised ones; that is a question of who reports to whom, this is a question of which physics each end of the chain runs on.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#hybrid-supply-chain"
  },
  {
   "term": "Idealised Supply Chain Design",
   "definition": "Idealised Supply Chain Design is a design method that abstracts a supply chain problem to the function it has to perform, then moves the system toward the ideal of performing that function with no system at all.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#idealised-supply-chain-design"
  },
  {
   "term": "Outside Variance Ratio (OVR)",
   "definition": "The Outside Variance Ratio, or OVR, is the share of an operation's total variance that originates outside the company's walls - sigma squared (outside) divided by sigma squared (total). A low OVR indicates symmetric physics; asymmetry appears as OVR rises. It is ordinal in practice, a field estimate rather than a figure measured to two decimals, and it is the quantitative form of the third question in the heuristic 02 test.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#outside-variance-ratio"
  },
  {
   "term": "Requisite variety in supply chain",
   "definition": "Requisite variety in the supply chain is the rule that any department can control only as much variation as it can absorb, and everything beyond that brings costs, delays or constant troubleshooting. Stated formally as Vr >= Ve - the distinct actions an operation can take in a time step against the distinct situations it faces - after W. Ross Ashby.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#requisite-variety"
  },
  {
   "term": "SCOPEC",
   "definition": "SCOPEC - I chose the name SCOPEC because it describes what I want to build: a test tool covering supply chain operations planning and execution in commodities.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/commodities-supply-chain-planning/01-problem-statement/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#scopec"
  },
  {
   "term": "Second landscape",
   "definition": "Second landscape - Every supply chain runs on two distinct technology landscapes. The official one records what happened: every transaction, supply chain event, and data point. Alongside this, there's another- a second landscape that enables daily operational decisions. The last one also defines what happens next.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#second-landscape"
  },
  {
   "term": "Supply chain orchestration",
   "definition": "Supply chain orchestration - touches one of the four flows (one of the functions) and gets only one view of the data. Decisions are still routed via operators.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/insights/supply-chain-orchestration/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#supply-chain-orchestration"
  },
  {
   "term": "Symmetric supply chain",
   "definition": "A symmetric supply chain is interdependent and balanced - partners share information, decision rights, risk and sometimes assets, so when an external factor hits one node the whole ecosystem adjusts to restore inventory and capacity to homeostasis.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/02-asymmetric-supply-chain-physics/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#symmetric-supply-chain"
  },
  {
   "term": "Variety Shortfall Test",
   "definition": "The Variety Shortfall Test takes the operational problem that keeps coming back and asks which of four layers is short - you cannot see it, you can see it but cannot act, you can act only one way, or the right action lands too late. The short layer is the one to fix, not the noisiest one.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/heuristics/01-requisite-variety-in-supply-chain/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#variety-shortfall-test"
  },
  {
   "term": "Waystation",
   "definition": "Waystation - a stop between systems where work arrives in one format, is checked by a human hand, and leaves in another with a new name. Waystations are where variety leaks and spreadsheets breed.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/citizen-developers-in-supply-chain/01-the-system-of-record/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#waystation"
  },
  {
   "term": "Zero-shot model",
   "definition": "Zero-shot model - They are pre-trained on synthetic and real tables. My current understanding, in simple words, is that they take a table they've never seen and produce a calibrated prediction without any training run.",
   "source": "https://www.sidorecs.com/notebooks/zero-shot-models-in-supply-chain/01-problem-statement/",
   "url": "https://www.sidorecs.com/glossary/#zero-shot-model"
  }
 ],
 "videos": [],
 "playbooks": [
  {
   "number": "01",
   "title": "Operating Model Physics",
   "subtitle": "Redesigning supply chain and operations for AI agents, one decision loop at a time",
   "status": "preparing"
  }
 ],
 "events": [
  {
   "date": "2026-10-02",
   "title": "17th SCTA Forum & Dinner",
   "role": "panellist",
   "where": "2m2c - Montreux Music & Convention Centre, Montreux",
   "summary": "I joined the logistics panel at the Swiss Coffee Trade Association's 17th Forum in Montreux with Dany Barkha of Sucafina, José Luis Pérez of Commodity Supplies AG, Mirja Nibbe of CMA CGM and Christian Jacob Hansen of the Global Maritime Forum, moderated by Dean Sanders of Etymos. The question was how coffee moves beyond reactive crisis management to connected flow across ports, shipping, data and forecasting.",
   "url": "https://www.sc-ta.ch/events/17th-forum-dinner-2026/",
   "reflection": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alxsidr_two-days-in-montreux-with-700-coffee-ugcPost-7512457499749490688-R9cT/",
   "press": [
    {
     "title": "Geopolitical shocks are reconfiguring the Swiss industry's coffee supply chains",
     "venue": "swissinfo.ch",
     "url": "https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/food-supply-chains/geopolitical-shocks-are-reconfiguring-the-swiss-industrys-coffee-supply-chains/92244668"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-28",
   "title": "AI-enabled Negotiation Preparation",
   "role": "panellist",
   "where": "online",
   "summary": "I joined the expert panel at the CIPS Denmark webinar with Elisabeth Schlag-Lawrence of CatalystProcurement and Dr. Charlotte de Brabandt of ZF Group. After start-ups showcased their AI tools for negotiation preparation, we stress-tested them with our own questions, then took the audience's live.",
   "url": "https://events.cips.org/AIEnabledNegotiationPreparation",
   "reflection": null,
   "press": []
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-18",
   "title": "The Invisible Chain",
   "role": "co-host",
   "where": "Ambassador House, Zurich",
   "summary": "As a CIPS Switzerland committee member, I co-hosted The Invisible Chain with Martin Weis of Capgemini - an evening in Zurich on how AI-driven operating models reshape margins across procurement, supply chain and finance.",
   "url": "https://www.capgemini.com/ch-en/news/events/the-invisible-chain/",
   "reflection": "https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/invisible-chain-event-ai-supply-biggest-lever-aleks-sidorecs-fuvie/",
   "press": []
  }
 ]
}